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SLU/YouGov Poll: Schmitt Has 11% Lead in Missouri U.S. Senate Race

President Biden鈥檚 and Senator Hawley鈥檚 approval ratings fall by at least 6% since July 2021

The August SLU/YouGov Poll interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters about Missouri鈥檚 2022 U.S Senate race and political issues facing Missouri. In a head-to-head matchup, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt leads Democratic Candidate Trudy Busch Valentine 49% to 38%, with 8% of voters saying they are undecided.

Half of Missourians are displeased with the U.S. Supreme Court鈥檚 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and fewer Missouri voters approve of President Biden, Governor Parson, and Senators Blunt and Hawley鈥檚 performance compared to findings from the July 2021 SLU/YouGov poll.

Missouri U.S. Senate Race: Schmitt v. Valentine

• Schmitt leads Valentine among female, suburban, and independent voters
• 77% of voters who disapprove of President Biden鈥檚 performance support Schmitt
• 56% of voters who believe the U.S. Economy is 鈥淔air鈥� or 鈥淧oor鈥� support Schmitt
• 69% of voters who disagreed with the overturning of Roe v. Wade support Valentine
• When including former Independent candidate John Wood in a 3-way race, 44% of voters supported Schmitt, 31% supported Valentine, 10% supported Wood, and 13% were undecided.

Abortion and Supreme Court Findings

• 50% of voters disagree with the U.S. Supreme Court鈥檚 overturning of Roe v. Wade
• 51% of voters disapprove of the U.S. Supreme Court鈥檚 performance
• At least 75% of voters believe it should be possible for a Missouri woman to legally obtain an abortion in cases of rape, incest, or when the pregnancy endangers a woman鈥檚 life
• 48% of voters would support an initiative to reverse the new ban on abortions in Missouri. 40% would vote to continue the ban. 13% were not sure.

National and Missouri Political Figures

• President Biden鈥檚 approval rating is 36%, a 9% drop since July 2021
• Governor Parson鈥檚 approval rating is 50%, a 3% drop
• Senator Hawley鈥檚 approval rating is 46%, a 6% drop
• Senator Blunt鈥檚 approval rating is 35%, a 5% drop
• The Missouri State Legislature鈥檚 approval rating is 46%, a 3% drop

The margin of error for the full sample of the survey is 卤 3.75%.

Top-line survey results
Results with demographic and party cross-tabs

Missouri U.S. Senate Race

The latest SLU/YouGov Poll shows Republican Eric Schmitt leads Democratic Candidate Trudy Busch Valentine, 49% to 38%. Five percent of voters said they would support another candidate, and 5% indicated they were undecided. Schmitt holds a 19% lead among white voters, a 13% lead among male voters, and a 10% lead among female voters. Schmitt also holds 42% and 9% leads among rural and suburban voters. Valentine meanwhile has more support in St. Louis, Kansas City, and among younger voters.

鈥淭hese results should comfort Republicans as their U.S. Senate candidates in other red states struggle in the polls,鈥� said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll. 鈥淪ome Democrats wished scandal-plagued Eric Greitens would win the contested Republican nomination to recreate a contest like the one where Claire McCaskill defeated Todd Akin. But it seems likely Schmitt will be Missouri鈥檚 next U.S Senator.鈥�

Independent candidate John Wood dropped out of the U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, Aug. 23, but when voters responded to the SLU/YouGov poll, Wood was still a possible candidate. When asked about a three-way contest between Schmitt, Busch, and Wood, 44% of voters supported Schmitt, 31% supported Valentine, and 10% supported Wood. Three percent said they would support another candidate, and 13% were undecided.

鈥淲ood dropping out unlikely affects the outcome of this race,鈥� said Rogers. 鈥淪chmitt holds a strong lead over Valentine, and Wood was fairly evenly drawing supporters away from both Schmitt and Valentine.鈥�

Thirty percent of Wood supporters in the three-way matchup supported Schmitt in the two-way matchup between Schmitt and Valentine; 29% of Wood supporters supported Valentine.

Roe v. Wade and Missouri Abortion Ban

With its ruling in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women鈥檚 Health Organization case, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, effectively making it illegal for most women to have an abortion in Missouri. Forty-seven percent of Missouri voters agreed with the decision, 50% disagreed, and 4% were not sure (margin of error 卤5.83%). Forty-eight percent of voters said they would support a ballot initiative to make abortions legal again in Missouri. Forty percent of voters would vote to continue the ban on abortions, and 13% were not sure (margin of error 卤5.93%).

Eighty percent of voters who agreed with overturning Roe v. Wade support Eric Schmitt in the U.S. Senate race. Schmitt recently sued the city of St. Louis to prevent women from receiving an abortion in another state. Only 11% of Missouri agreed that 鈥渁 Missouri woman should be criminally prosecuted for receiving an abortion in another state鈥� (margin of error 卤5.83%).

Voters Unhappy with Federal Government; Hawley鈥檚 approval falls below 50%

As Republicans try to retake Congress in the 2022 elections, only 22% of voters approve of Congress鈥檚 performance (margin of error 卤5.83%), and 15% think the United States is on the wrong track (margin of error 卤5.93%). Only 36% of voters approved of President Joe Biden鈥檚 performance, which is a 9% decrease from the July 2021 SLU/YouGov poll.

鈥淭he president鈥檚 party typically does poorly in midterm elections, and President Biden鈥檚 popularly is not helpful for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot,鈥� said Rogers. 鈥淚t is a little over two months until the election, but Republicans likely have a solid hold on Missouri.鈥�

Missouri鈥檚 U.S. Senators鈥� approval ratings also fell in the last year. Josh Hawley鈥檚 52% approval rating was the highest among federal political figures in the July 2021 SLU/YouGov poll, but his approval fell to 46% in August 2022. Retiring Senator Roy Blunt鈥檚 approval also fell from 40% to 35% across the two polls.

Governor Mike Parson is the most popular political figure in Missouri, among those asked about on the survey, with 50% of voters approving of the Governor鈥檚 performance and 44% disapproving.

Methodology and Funding

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between August 8, 2022 and August 16, 2022. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.2 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of registered voters of Missouri voters from the 2019 American Community Survey. The margin of error for the weighted data is 3.75%. Reduced samples of voters answered some questions, and margins of error for these questions are indicated above. The SLU/YouGov Poll is funded by the PRiME Center in SLU鈥檚 School of Education and the 老司机福利网 Research Institute Big Ideas competition, which provides funding to research initiatives that demonstrate broad faculty engagement, strong leadership and compelling research plans.

About YouGov

老司机福利网 has partnered with YouGov to conduct its annual survey of Missourians. YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. An independent Pew Research Center study of online survey firms in 2016 further concluded that YouGov 鈥渃onsistently outperforms competitors.鈥�

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