SLU/YouGov Poll Shows Missourians Favor Missouri Politicians, but Not President, Congress or Supreme Court
Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis on the latest SLU/YouGov poll results, focusing here on how Missourians rate the job performance of various politicians and governmental institutions.
Our SLU/YouGov poll showed that Missourians, identified as likely voters in our poll, gave quite favorable ratings to the Missouri politicians, as well as the Missouri legislature, but they gave relatively low ratings to President Joe Biden, the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. We found the same pattern in previous polls. When asked, 鈥淒o you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is doing his job,鈥� only 14% said 鈥渟trongly approve,鈥� 23% said 鈥渁pprove,鈥� while 10% answered 鈥渄isapprove,鈥� with a whopping 52% responding 鈥渟trongly disapprove.鈥� Most Missourians have made up their minds on Biden because only 2% said they were 鈥渘ot sure.鈥� Biden鈥檚 total approval rating in our poll showed the president with 37%, which is slightly lower than the realclearpolitics.com national average of 40.2%.
As expected, Biden polled very well among Democrats, receiving a combined 鈥渁pprove鈥� and 鈥渟trongly approve鈥� percentage of 86%. However, only 3% of Republicans 鈥渁pproved鈥� of Biden鈥檚 job performance with 96% 鈥渄isapproving鈥� or "strongly disapproving." Biden received the best combined approval ratings among Black voters, 65%; voters between 18-44, 42.5%; those earning over $100k, 45%; those with four-year college degrees, 42%; and postgraduate degrees, 49%. He also received respectable ratings in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas with 53% and 52% respectively. Those living in the four rural areas of the state we sampled gave Biden dismal approval ratings, with an average 鈥渟trongly disapprove鈥� percentage of 64%.
Yet, likely Missouri voters gave the U.S. Congress much worse disapproval scores, with only 2% 鈥渟trongly approving,鈥� 12% 鈥渁pproving,鈥� 51% 鈥渄isapproving,鈥� 27% 鈥渟trongly disapproving,鈥� and 8% saying they are 鈥渘ot sure.鈥� This finding is consistent with recent national polls reported on realclearpolitics.com, which showed that congressional approval ratings ranged between 15% and 19%.
Missouri鈥檚 likely voters did not give the U.S. Supreme Court high favorability ratings either, although the ratings were much higher than for Congress. Only 4% 鈥渟trongly approved鈥� of how the Supreme Court was doing its job, with another 39% saying they 鈥渁pproved.鈥� This finding is consistent with national polling of the Supreme Court鈥檚 performance with 40% in recent Gallup polling approving, down from 62% approval in 2000. Recent controversial rulings by the Supreme Court have been received negatively by many Americans, including Missourians, thus accounting for the lower approval ratings for the Supreme Court, especially since 2020, when the high court鈥檚 approval rating hit a recent high of 58%.
Missouri鈥檚 likely voters, by contrast, gave relatively high approval ratings to their Missouri Legislature, with 4% 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 41% 鈥渁pproving鈥� for a 45% total approval percentage in sharp contrast to the 14% total approval score for the U.S. Congress. This relatively high approval rating is driven by Republicans, who gave a 69% combined approval score to the Missouri Legislature. Democrats and Independents were not so generous, with Democrats giving the state legislature only a 17% total approval rating, while Independents only gave the state legislature a 34% total approval rating. It should be noted that Americans have been giving fairly low approval ratings to most governmental institutions and politicians for many decades now, so a 45% approval rating of the Missouri legislature is considered quite high.
Gov. Mike Parson continues to receive relatively high approval ratings. In our August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll, 47% approved of his job performance. In our February 2024 poll, Parson increased his job approval ratings to 52%, with 15% 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 37% 鈥渁pproving.鈥� Expectedly, Parson鈥檚 strong approval ratings come from Republicans, with 85% approving (28% 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 57% 鈥渁pproving鈥�), mostly living in rural areas. In the four rural areas of the state we sampled, Parson averaged 62% combined approval ratings, while in the metro areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, his total approval percentage was not nearly as strong, with 40% and 43% scores, respectively. His approval ratings among Democrats were dismal, with only 3% 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 8% 鈥渁pproving.鈥� Parson also did least well among the highest educated and highest income Missourians.
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley鈥檚 job approval ratings also moved up slightly since we last polled in August of 2023. In this poll, he received a 50% combined approval percentage, with 27% 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 23% 鈥渁pproving,鈥� up from a 47% combined score in August 2023. Although Hawley received a high combined approval rating among Republicans, 86%, his combined approval rating among Democrats was in the tank at 7%. Independents were split over Hawley, with 47% 鈥渁pproving鈥� or 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� and 43% 鈥渁pproving鈥� or 鈥渟trongly approving.鈥� Black Missourians were most likely to disapprove of Hawley鈥檚 job performance, with 18% 鈥渄isapproving鈥� and 42% 鈥渟trongly disapproving.鈥� As with Parson, Hawley did the least well among those with the highest education and income levels, as well as with likely Missouri voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas.
Recently elected U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt also increased his job approval scores slightly from our August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll from 42% total approval to 45% total approval. He noticeably receives lower approval scores among Republicans than both Parson and Hawley. While Schmitt received a 75% combined approval rating among Republicans, Parson mustered an 85% combined approval score and Hawley an 86% combined approval score. Approval or disapproval for Schmitt comes from the same demographics as for Parson and Hawley, but Schmitt does clearly worse among younger Missouri likely voters, with 35% in the 18-29 age group 鈥渁pproving鈥� or 鈥渟trongly approving鈥� of Schmitt鈥檚 job performance and only 28% in the 20-44 age group.
This analysis is based on data from the February 2024 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.